Some Basic Parameters of the PV System to Date

There are some handy parameters that can be used to estimate the power or revenue generation of a PV system. Often people will take the kW of the system and multiply it by the expected parameter to get expected value such as kW hours per year or dollars per year. These numbers are relatively easy to calculate. Ideally people are using the most realistic values possible if they want to estimate their expected outcome.

An example is, how many kilowatt hours should I generate from my 5 kW system on my roof?

First, here are my parameters for our 4.9 kW DC system [5 kW string inverter]:

Variables	kW	Dollars
Mean [4.9 kW]	15.81	$12.68
Per [1 kW]	3.23	$2.59
Min [4.9 kW]	0.05	$0.04
Max [4.9 kW]	35.13	$28.17

In this case, applying my parameters to a hypothetical 5 kW DC system, we could estimate mean daily kW production over the year to be 5 kW * 3.23 kW per kW = 16.15 kW per day. Multiply that your FIT contract price and this would be your daily income averaged over the year. 

You can use the values above to estimate your highest and lowest income as $28.17 / 4.9 * your DC kW.

Oh, and you can see that you'll have some bad days too - $0.04 / 4.9 kW will give you $0.01/kW on dark snowy, snow-covered panel days. 

Charting out the Generation, Revenue, Expense of our PV System

I've cumulatively plotted out the revenue my PV system has generated over time as well as what I've paid on our load. I've also plotted out the microFIT payments I've received from Guelph Hydro. Note the following:

• revenue (blue) increases relatively over the spring and summer months and slows down over the winter
• our revenue was initaially greater than out payments, then over the first winter revenue was lower than the payments. The revenue overtook the loan payments in June 2011 and has been a net income ever since
• our net earnings to date have been approximately $8500-$7500=$1000
• the microFIT payments are lagging my loan payments - I've needed to keep a float in my account to cover the delay of payments
• the time period between microFIT payments from Guelph Hydro is rather variable. The last payment in particular was delayed quite a bit and I had to put extra money in my account to cover the automatic withdrawal of the loan payments. Guelph Hydro told me they are implementing a new billing and payment system that will automate their payments. They told me they had now over 100 microFIT contracts connected in Guelph. It also tells me that Guelph Hydro is much more consistent in sending bills to me than wanting to pay me.

Revenue generated, loan expenses, and microFIT payments

Ontario Power Authority 2 Year Review of Feed In Tariff Programme, Minister's Directive of 5 April 2012.

The Ontario Power Authority released the scheduled 2 year review of the FIT programme on 22 March. Yesterday they held a webinar to provide information to the public about the changes to the microFIT programme being proposed. There is a comment period and readers may see these details on the OPA website. The points below are the proposed changes to the programme, contract, and rules, take verbatim from the OPA website (I've put my comments in brackets):

Key changes to the FIT and microFIT Programmes include:

• As a first step, the FIT and microFIT program rules will provide for the awarding of 50 MW of microFIT and 200 MW of small FIT contracts as soon as possible. (applications in the queue will be processed and released soon)
• FIT applications will now be accepted only during an application window, rather than on an ongoing basis. (a more planned application approach -likely to help the OPA assess applications based on grid capacity and their ability to process the applications)
• Small project FIT applicants will now need to submit application security if they wish to apply or re-apply under the new program rules. (likely to reduce the number of speculative applications)
• Applications will be prioritized with points awarded based on applicant type, municipal support, Aboriginal support, project readiness and electricity system benefit. (allowing for greater community involvement in the development process)
• Solar rooftop projects must reach commercial operation within 18 months of receiving a contract, compared with three years previously. (if you get an application you need to build - this way the price you have to pay for the system reflects the price you'll receive for the electricity sales. Also, if you have grid capacity allocated to you then build now or give the capacity to someone else)
• Ground-mounted solar projects need to be located on lands that are not used for residential purposes and also cannot be adjacent to lands that are used for residential purposes. (proximity and land use decisions)
• Ground-mounted solar projects are permitted on commercial and industrial lands as long as it is the secondary use of the property. However, if the project is the only use of the property, it will be ineligible. (ground-mounted solar is the the main use of the land but ancillary. This will encourage more solar to be put on roof tops)
• In addition, ground-mounted solar projects can be located only on property that does not contain any Class 1, 2 or 3 soils, organic or specialty crop soils, regardless of zoning, or any mixed soils that contain Class 1, 2 or 3 soils. (protection of highly valuable lands)
• For projects other than rooftop solar that receive prioritization points related to the type of applicant, there are new restrictions on changes that would reduce the equity held by a community, Aboriginal group or health or education entity below the level that enabled the project to qualify for such prioritization points during the entire term. For rooftop solar projects that receive prioritization points related to the type of applicant, such restrictions apply from the contract date until five years after the commercial operation date. (ensuring significant community investment {and community benefit} and reducing the risk that "token" community investment will be used for the project only to be transferred to the main developer after project approval)

These points above are derived from the Minister's Directive released on 4 April 2012. This directive has many very important details and people should read this directive very carefully.